Nigeria’s economy recovering after painful reforms — NRS
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has said the Nigerian economy is showing strong signs of recovery and accelerated growth following a series of “painful” reforms implemented by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the NRS said the economy had moved “decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing,” following reforms targeting fuel subsidies, foreign exchange, the oil sector and taxation.
The service said key indicators were now pointing to recovery, including declining inflation, improved balance of payments, increased oil production, higher tax collections and changes in the country’s productive base. It noted that economic growth rose from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves increased from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026.
According to the report, oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. It also attributed the increase to the naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries, which it said had helped the country move towards becoming a net exporter of petroleum products.
The NRS said the improved economic outlook was also reflected in the capital market, with the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. It attributed the growth partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking sector recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.
Tax collections, the report added, more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026. The increase was attributed to the digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing revenue loopholes.
The report further said Nigeria’s balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026, while the country’s trade position improved from a marginal N44.7 billion surplus to N7.55 trillion during the same period.
Annual capital importation also rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
On transportation and energy, the NRS highlighted the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme, saying more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted by 2026, with over $2 billion in investment reportedly mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created.
On agriculture, the service said federal agricultural allocation increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget. It cited measures including the release of strategic grain reserves, establishment of a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation.
The NRS said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, but acknowledged that the agricultural sector would require several planting seasons for government interventions to translate into sustained increases in output.
On debt, the report said Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025. However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026.
The NRS described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade, adding that debt servicing as a share of revenue fell from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.